I appreciate all the work you've put into this, particularly given the horrific topic and our need to understand all our risks. It's kind of you to share. I hoped you might have included Puerto Rico (although was just being optimistic); I live in the District of Columbia, and that is often left off of these inquiries so am used to that. I find it jarring however to see any modern map of the United States that excludes Hawaii and Alaska, particularly since one of the maps you do use shows the latter as visible but empty of data. I am sure that you must have those data (or the graphs also would be missing two states) so perhaps the maps might be corrected?
This is both frightening and fascinating. Thank you. It does seem more straight forward than some models and in line with what I see. Is there any further detail available on the "under the hood" assumptions you use? In particular, ascertainment rate over time, IFR by age, and age prevalence over time. I've spent time modeling Florida's Covid death history (I'm a dabbling retired numbers guy) and find working with a model provides a better understanding of what the various pieces are and how they might be fitting together. A big question of course is what cumulative infection level this will get to. I'm starting to think based on Youyang Gu's numbers maybe 30-40% might be a common end point. Yours may be higher. Also wonder if the declines in general could end up being more precipitous than portrayed here (a la ND, IA, WI). Anyway, thanks for this post. Subscribed - harrison1244@gmail.com
I appreciate all the work you've put into this, particularly given the horrific topic and our need to understand all our risks. It's kind of you to share. I hoped you might have included Puerto Rico (although was just being optimistic); I live in the District of Columbia, and that is often left off of these inquiries so am used to that. I find it jarring however to see any modern map of the United States that excludes Hawaii and Alaska, particularly since one of the maps you do use shows the latter as visible but empty of data. I am sure that you must have those data (or the graphs also would be missing two states) so perhaps the maps might be corrected?
This is both frightening and fascinating. Thank you. It does seem more straight forward than some models and in line with what I see. Is there any further detail available on the "under the hood" assumptions you use? In particular, ascertainment rate over time, IFR by age, and age prevalence over time. I've spent time modeling Florida's Covid death history (I'm a dabbling retired numbers guy) and find working with a model provides a better understanding of what the various pieces are and how they might be fitting together. A big question of course is what cumulative infection level this will get to. I'm starting to think based on Youyang Gu's numbers maybe 30-40% might be a common end point. Yours may be higher. Also wonder if the declines in general could end up being more precipitous than portrayed here (a la ND, IA, WI). Anyway, thanks for this post. Subscribed - harrison1244@gmail.com